


We have noted in prior research that GOOG is likely paying to ensure Microsoft doesn’t outbid it. We see two potential risks to GOOG’s payments to AAPL: (1) regulatory risk, which we believe is real, but likely years away we see a potential 4-5% impact to Apple’s gross profits from an adverse ruling & (2) that Google chooses to stop paying Apple to be the default search engine altogether, or looks to renegotiate terms and pay less. The data is based on “disclosures in Apple’s public filings as well as a bottom-up analysis of Google’s TAC (traffic acquisition costs) payments.”īernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi says that Google is likely “paying to ensure Microsoft doesn’t outbid it.” The analysts outline two potential risks for the Google payment to Apple, including regulatory risk and Google simply deciding the deal is no longer worth it: In the investor note, seen by Ped30, Bernstein analysts are estimating that Google’s payment to Apple will increase to $15 billion in 2021, and to between $18 billion and $20 billion in 2022. Now, a new report from analysts at Bernstein suggests that the payment from Google to Apple may reach $15 billion in 2021, up from $10 billion in 2020. It’s long been known that Google pays Apple a hefty sum every year to ensure that it remains the default search engine on iPhone, iPad, and Mac.
